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IES Grant

Title: The Unintended Consequences of a Major Education Policy Reform: California's Class Size Reduction, Student Achievement, and the 'Social Multiplier'
Center: NCER Year: 2005
Principal Investigator: Bayer, Patrick Awardee: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Program: Improving Education Systems      [Program Details]
Award Period: 2 years Award Amount: $390,923
Type: Exploration Award Number: R305E050137
Description:

Purpose: In this study, the researchers proposed to identify the unintended consequences associated with California's class size reduction on the distribution of students across schools and households across neighborhoods. At the time of the study, the theory behind class size reduction policies was that smaller classes would lead to lasting academic improvements, especially in the areas of reading, mathematics, and science. The research team hypothesized that a class reduction policy from 1996 that reduced class sizes in primary grades from 30 to 20 students created a domino effect in areas outside the classroom that ultimately had a negative impact on student achievement. Researchers aimed to examine this possibility and also to trace any consequences of adjustments in the composition of schools and neighborhoods for academic achievement (the 'social multiplier' effect).

Structured Abstract

THE FOLLOWING CONTENT DESCRIBES THE PROJECT AT THE TIME OF FUNDING

Setting: The data come from relevant sources in California including California Basic Educational Data System (1993–2003), the California Standardized Testing and Reporting system, California school district boundary maps, and the California Association of Realtors transaction data (1993–2003).

Sample: All school-aged children in California's public school system, regardless of race or socioeconomic status are included.

Factor(s): The researchers will identify and assess the 'social multiplier' effect of California's 1996 voluntary class size reduction policy that has since its 1997 implementation reduced K–3 class sizes in California public schools from around 30 students to 20. Researchers hypothesize that the class size reform caused a cascade of unintended consequences that began with a huge and sudden demand for teachers. As hypothesized by the researchers, the 'social multiplier' concept describes a process in which the high demand for teachers across districts with different financial resources resulted in better-qualified teachers shifting from poorer to richer schools and districts, while leaving less qualified teachers in poorer schools and districts. They hypothesize that these changes in the teacher labor market then led to uneven consequences for student and school performances which were then further reinforced as parents relocated their households to neighborhoods with better resources and higher quality schools. For this study, researchers first assess whether and how this process took place and then estimate the consequences of these induced demographic changes for student achievement.

Research Design and Methods: Using student, school, Census, and housing data, this empirical analysis models the association between California's statewide class size reduction (and its associated changes in the teacher labor market and in the sorting of students and households across neighborhoods) and student achievement. Part 1 of the analysis models the impact of class-size reduction on student composition across schools and includes (a) determining changes in the observable sociodemographic characteristics in each grade in each school and (b) changes in neighborhood sociodemographic composition and housing demand. In Part 2, researchers will estimate the association between school and neighborhood stratification (estimated in part 1) and student achievement. The California Basic Educational Data System (1993–2003), the California Standardized Testing and Reporting, California school district boundary maps, restricted access Census microdata (1990 and 2000), and the California Association of Realtors transaction data (1993–2003) will be utilized.

Key Measures: Part 1 of the analysis requires data on student, school, and neighborhood composition. Researchers will use school-level, student-level, and sociodemographic data from the California Basic Educational Data System. Researchers will draw neighborhood data from three major sources: (1) California Department of Education's school district boundary maps; (2) restricted Census microdata that provides detailed data on individuals and housing and also allows for the construction of neighborhood-level racial, education, and income distributions; and (3) housing transaction data from the California Association of Realtors. Part 2 of the analysis requires additional information on student achievement for different subgroup populations. These data will be drawn from the California Department of Education's Standardized Testing and Reporting program.

Data Analytic Strategy: The data analysis is primarily regression-based and uses a boundary-fixed effects approach to examine the potential differential influence of the class size reduction at different jurisdictional boundaries. Researchers regress (a) block level changes in housing prices on boundary-fixed effects and changes in class size, teacher quality, and student composition for the school in the attendance zone in which that block resides; (b) the changes in neighborhood composition at attendance zone boundaries on boundary-fixed effects and changes in class size and teacher quality at the corresponding local school; and (c) the changes in demographics of students at neighborhood schools on boundary-fixed effects and changes in class size and teacher quality. Using these data, researchers will then link changes in school and neighborhood sociodemographic information to further changes in student performance associated with the 'social multiplier', rather than the initial policy change directly.

Products and Publications

ERIC Citations: Find available citations in ERIC for this award here.

Select Publications:

Journal articles

Bayer, P., Fernando, F., and McMillan, R. (2007). A Unified Framework for Measuring Preferences for Schools and Neighborhoods. Journal of Political Economy, 115 (4): 2001–2052.

** This project was submitted to and funded under Education Policy, Finance, and Systems in FY 2005


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