The Effects of Statewide Private School Choice on College Enrollment and Graduation: Evidence from the Florida Tax Credit Scholarship Program. Education Policy Program. Research Report
Chingos, Matthew M.; Kuehn, Daniel (2017). Urban Institute. Retrieved from: https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED585325
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examining59,846Students, grades4-11
Quick Review
Review Details
Reviewed: January 2018
- Quick Review (findings for Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program)
- Quasi-Experimental Design
- Meets WWC standards with reservations because it uses a quasi-experimental design in which the analytic intervention and comparison groups satisfy the baseline equivalence requirement.
This review may not reflect the full body of research evidence for this intervention.
Evidence Tier rating based solely on this study. This intervention may achieve a higher tier when combined with the full body of evidence.
Findings
|
Outcome measure |
Comparison | Period | Sample |
Intervention mean |
Comparison mean |
Significant? |
Improvement index |
Evidence tier |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
44.90 |
38.50 |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
47.50 |
41.50 |
Yes |
|
|
|
| Show Supplemental Findings | |||||||||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Asian; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
86.90 |
58.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Asian; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
77.10 |
62.30 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
FTC for 4+ years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
52.60 |
38.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
FTC for 3 years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
48.10 |
38.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Top quartile of baseline math achievement; intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
65.40 |
57.00 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
FTC for 3 years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
49.40 |
41.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Enrollment in community college |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
40.50 |
34.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Enrollment in community college |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
43.70 |
37.60 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Traditional public school at baseline; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
45.00 |
38.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 2 years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
47.40 |
41.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Traditional public school at baseline; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
46.80 |
41.10 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Born outside U.S.; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
43.60 |
37.80 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Used FTC to attend Other Christian school; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
42.90 |
37.00 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Reduced-price lunch; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
50.50 |
45.80 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Used FTC to attend Other Christian school; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
45.50 |
40.00 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
"Other" race/ethnicity: Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
45.70 |
41.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
FTC for 2 years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
41.80 |
38.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Enrollment in public university |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
6.56 |
6.06 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Used FTC to attend Nonreligious school; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
41.50 |
40.00 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Enrollment in public university |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
5.83 |
5.63 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
FTC for 1 year; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
42.50 |
41.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
FTC for 1 year; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
39.70 |
38.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Reduced-price lunch; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
48.50 |
48.20 |
Yes |
|
||
|
College enrollment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Used FTC to attend Nonreligious school; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
40.30 |
40.00 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Outcome measure |
Comparison | Period | Sample |
Intervention mean |
Comparison mean |
Significant? |
Improvement index |
Evidence tier |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bachelor's degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
5.90 |
5.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Associates degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
7.80 |
7.20 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Associates degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
8.20 |
8.20 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Bachelor's degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
2 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
5.00 |
5.40 |
Yes |
|
||
| Show Supplemental Findings | |||||||||
|
Associates degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 4+ years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
9.30 |
7.20 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Bachelor's degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 3 years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
6.90 |
5.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Associates degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 3 years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
8.20 |
7.20 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Associates degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 3 years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
9.20 |
8.20 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Bachelor's degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 2 years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
5.70 |
5.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Bachelor's degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 1 year; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
5.30 |
5.40 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Bachelor's degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 1 year; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
5.40 |
5.50 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Associates degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 1 year; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
7.10 |
7.20 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Associates degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 2 years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
7.00 |
7.20 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Associates degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 1 year; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
7.60 |
8.20 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Associates degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 2 years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
7.70 |
8.20 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Bachelor's degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 2 years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
4.60 |
5.40 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Bachelor's degree attainment |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
0 Years |
FTC for 4+ years; Intervention first experienced in Grade: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8;
|
4.50 |
5.40 |
Yes |
|
||
|
Outcome measure |
Comparison | Period | Sample |
Intervention mean |
Comparison mean |
Significant? |
Improvement index |
Evidence tier |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Number of semesters enrolled at Florida public college |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
4 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
2.31 |
2.14 |
Yes |
-- | ||
| Show Supplemental Findings | |||||||||
|
Number of semesters enrolled at Florida community college |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
4 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
1.84 |
1.61 |
Yes |
-- | ||
|
Number of semesters enrolled at Florida university |
Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program vs. Business as usual |
4 Years |
Intervention first experienced in Grade: 9, 10, 11;
|
0.43 |
0.47 |
Yes |
-- | ||
Evidence Tier rating based solely on this study. This intervention may achieve a higher tier when combined with the full body of evidence.
Sample Characteristics
Characteristics of study sample as reported by study author.
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Florida
Study Details
Setting
The study authors examined the effects of receiving a voucher to attend a private elementary or secondary school on postsecondary outcomes for economically disadvantaged students in Florida. The Florida Tax Credit (FTC) program provides private school scholarships for students in grades K–12 whose household incomes are under designated income thresholds. From 2003 to 2006, students were eligible for FTC if they lived in a household with income up to 185% of the federal poverty level, which was the threshold to receive free or reduced-price lunch. From 2006 to 2009, the eligibility threshold increased to a household income of 200% of the federal poverty level.
Study sample
The sample of FTC participants who began participating in FTC before high school were 51% female, 23% White, 43% Black, and 31% Hispanic. About 9% of this sample was born outside of the United States, and about 85% received free or reduced-price lunch. The sample of FTC participants who began participating in FTC during high school were 47% female, 21% White, 46% Black, and 30% Hispanic. About 11% of this sample was born outside of the United States, and about 76% received free or reduced-price lunch.
Intervention Group
FTC participants received a voucher to attend a private elementary or secondary school in Florida. The average length of participation in FTC was 2.8 years for students who began participating in FTC before high school and 2.1 years for students who began participating in FTC during high school. The maximum scholarship amount was originally $3,500 but rose to over $6,000 in 2017.
Comparison Group
The comparison condition is business as usual for students enrolled in public elementary, middle, and high schools in Florida.
Support for implementation
No support for implementation is described.
An indicator of the effect of the intervention, the improvement index can be interpreted as the expected change in percentile rank for an average comparison group student if that student had received the intervention.
For more, please see the WWC Glossary entry for improvement index.
An outcome is the knowledge, skills, and attitudes that are attained as a result of an activity. An outcome measures is an instrument, device, or method that provides data on the outcome.
A finding that is included in the effectiveness rating. Excluded findings may include subgroups and subscales.
The sample on which the analysis was conducted.
The group to which the intervention group is compared, which may include a different intervention, business as usual, or no services.
The timing of the post-intervention outcome measure.
The number of students included in the analysis.
The mean score of students in the intervention group.
The mean score of students in the comparison group.
The WWC considers a finding to be statistically significant if the likelihood that the finding is due to chance alone, rather than a real difference, is less than five percent.
The WWC reviews studies for WWC products, Department of Education grant competitions, and IES performance measures.
The name and version of the document used to guide the review of the study.
The version of the WWC design standards used to guide the review of the study.
The result of the WWC assessment of the study. The rating is based on the strength of evidence of the effectiveness of the intervention. Studies are given a rating of Meets WWC Design Standards without Reservations, Meets WWC Design Standards with Reservations, or >Does Not Meet WWC Design Standards.
A related publication that was reviewed alongside the main study of interest.
Study findings for this report.
Based on the direction, magnitude, and statistical significance of the findings within a domain, the WWC characterizes the findings from a study as one of the following: statistically significant positive effects, substantively important positive effects, indeterminate effects, substantively important negative effects, and statistically significant negative effects. For more, please see the WWC Handbook.
The WWC may review studies for multiple purposes, including different reports and re-reviews using updated standards. Each WWC review of this study is listed in the dropdown. Details on any review may be accessed by making a selection from the drop down list.
Tier 1 Strong indicates strong evidence of effectiveness,
Tier 2 Moderate indicates moderate evidence of effectiveness, and
Tier 3 Promising indicates promising evidence of effectiveness,
as defined in the
non-regulatory guidance for ESSA
and the regulations for ED discretionary grants (EDGAR Part 77).