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Examining Teacher Shortage and Surplus in Michigan


Description: The study will examine existing teacher-, school-, and district-level data from school years 2008/09 to 2015/16 to describe patterns and trends in the supply and demand of teachers and teacher shortage and surplus in public schools in Michigan. In addition, the study will project teacher shortage and surplus in Michigan during the next five years.

Research Questions:

  1. What are the trends in teacher supply, demand, shortages and surpluses in Michigan public schools over the last eight years?
    • What are the trends in teacher supply, demand, shortages and surpluses by certification area, Economic Prosperity region of the state, district locale, or teacher compensation level (as measured by district average teacher salary)?
  2. What will Michigan's public school teacher supply and demand picture look like in the next five years?
    • What will the supply and demand picture look like for each Economic Prosperity region in Michigan? For each area of certification? For districts in different locales? And for districts with different compensation levels?

Study Design: The study team will examine data supplied by the Michigan Department of Education (MDE) and publicly available data. To answer Research Question 1, the study team will use information from MDE's Registry of Educational Personnel, educator certification files, data on special permissions, counts of teacher candidates and completers from approved teacher preparation programs, and publicly available data. The team will examine trends in a single indicator of teacher shortage (i.e., percentage of individuals teaching with special permissions or substitute permits) as well as trends in different components of teacher supply and demand. To address Research Question 2, the study team will develop projections of teacher supply and demand for the next five years. The research team will test different projection models and will adopt the empirical strategy that yields the smallest average percentage errors and the smallest mean absolute percentage errors when applied to historical data.

Projected Release Date: Spring 2019

Partnership or Research Alliance: Midwest Alliance to Improve Teacher Preparation.

Related Products: What's Happening report

Principal Investigators & Affiliation:
Yinmei Wan and Natalya Gnedko-Berry, American Institutes for Research