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Perceptions and Expectations of Youth With Disabilities  (NLTS2)
NCSER 2007-3006
September 2007

Educational Attainment Expectations

Youth with disabilities were asked how likely they thought it was that they would reach several education milestones, using a 4-point scale: "definitely will" (4 points), "probably will," "probably won't" or "definitely won't" (1 point; figure 19). Almost 85 percent expect they "definitely will"41 graduate from high school with a regular diploma; an additional 12 percent think they "probably will" do so. Fewer than 1 in 20 youth (4 percent) do not expect to graduate from high school with a regular diploma.

Figure 19: Youth with disabilities' reported expectations for their future educational attainment

Youth with disabilities report being less confident that they will attend postsecondary school. One-half (52 percent) say they expect they "definitely will" continue on to postsecondary school, and approximately one-third (34 percent) expect they "probably will." However, more than 1 in 10 (14 percent) consider postsecondary education unlikely.

Figure 20: Youth with disabilities' reported expectations for their future postsecondary school completion

Youth with disabilities also were questioned about whether they expected to complete three types of postsecondary programs: vocational, technical, or trade school; 2-year college; and 4 year college. Approximately one-quarter expect they "definitely will" complete a vocational, technical, or trade school program (26 percent) or 4 year college (25 percent), and about one-third (34 percent) say they "definitely will" graduate from a 2-year college (figure 20). An additional 34 percent to 39 percent report they "probably will" complete each of the three types of postsecondary education.

Expectations related to high school graduation are comparable for youth with disabilities and their peers in the general population. Most youth in both groups (97 percent of youth with disabilities and 99 percent of those in the general population)42 say they expect to finish high school with a regular diploma. Youth with disabilities are less positive than their general-population peers about postsecondary education attendance or completion.43 Eighty-six percent of youth with disabilities expect they "definitely" or "probably" will continue their education after high school, compared with 95 percent of those in the general population who expect to go on to postsecondary school (p < .001). The gap in expectations is wider related to postsecondary school completion. Almost four of five youth in the general population report expecting they will graduate from a 4-year college (79 percent), compared with approximately three of five youth with disabilities who "definitely" or "probably" expect to complete this type of education (61 percent, p < .001).

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41 When youth were interviewed, those who already had achieved an outcome were not asked the expectation item related to that outcome. For example, those who already had completed secondary school are not asked whether they expected to graduate from high school. Throughout this chapter, youth who already have attained an outcome are included as "definitely will" attain that outcome. If those who had attained an outcome were excluded from the analyses, findings would not be representative of the range of youth included in the NLTS2 report sample.

42 General education statistics related to graduation from high school are from the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Household Education Survey (NHES) 1993 youth survey, responses for youth ages 15 through 19. The NHES item somewhat differs from the NLTS2 item. The NHES item asks youth, "Do you think you will graduate from high school?" with "yes/no" responses. The NLTS2 item asks, "How likely do you think it is that you will graduate from high school and get a regular high school diploma?" with response categories of "definitely will," "probably will," "probably won't," or "definitely won't." For comparison with general population, NLTS2 responses of "definitely will" and "probably will" are combined for comparison with NHES "yes" responses.

43 General education statistics related to postsecondary education are from the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Household Education Survey (NHES) 1999 youth survey, responses for youth ages 15 through 19. NHES and NLTS2 postsecondary education expectations items have similar wordings, but the response categories differ. NHES items have "yes/no" response categories, and NLTS2 items have response categories of "definitely will," "probably will," "probably won't," or "definitely won't." For comparison with general population, NLTS2 responses of "definitely will" and "probably will" are combined for comparison with NHES "yes" responses.