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|REL 2019009||Past and projected trends in teacher demand and supply in Michigan
State and district leaders in Michigan have described a need for better and more comprehensive information on the existence and extent of teacher shortages within the state of Michigan in recent years and projected into the near future. Michigan has experienced challenges matching the active supply of teachers to the demand for the kinds of teachers that districts need. This study aims to provide a systematic understanding of teacher supply, demand, and shortages in Michigan. This study used data from the 2013/14 to 2017/18 school years to examine trends in teacher supply and demand in Michigan, and make projections for the next five years. Data used include personnel, certification, and substitute permit data from the Michigan Department of Education as well as publicly available data from the MI School Data portal and the federal Title II website. Methods used include descriptive statistics and regression analysis to project teacher supply and demand. The study found that total student enrollment in Michigan public schools declined by 2.8 percent between 2013/14 and 2017/18, while the enrollment of English learner students increased by 27.1 percent over the five-year period. The size of the teacher workforce, as measured by teacher full-time equivalents, decreased by 2.1 percent between 2013/14 and 2017/18. The number of newly certified, active teachers decreased by 23.4 percent between 2013/14 and 2017/18. Although the overall active supply of teachers in Michigan public schools is projected to meet the demand over the next five years, shortages are expected in a few subject areas (for example, business education and career and technical education) and regions (for example, the Northwest and Upper Peninsula). Study findings suggest leverage points in teacher retention and certification to address potential teacher shortages. Moreover, efforts to increase the supply of qualified teachers should be focused on those subject areas, regions, and locales where shortages are projected.