Using the Freshman On-Track Indicator to Predict Graduation in Two Urban Districts in the Midwest Region

Title:	Using the Freshman On-Track Indicator to Predict Graduation in Two Urban Districts in the Midwest Region
Description:	This report examines how well the freshman on-track indicator developed by the Consortium on Chicago School Research predicts on-time graduation in two urban districts in the Midwest Region. This indicator classifies students at the end of the first year of high school as on-track or off-track to graduate based on grade 9 course credits earned and failures. REL Midwest examined on-track and off-track rates and for recent freshman cohorts as well as 4-year graduation rates for on-track and off-track students. Key findings include: For both districts, students who were on track at the end of grade 9 graduated on time at a higher rate than did students who were off track. This was the case both overall and for student subgroups based on gender, race/ethnicity, special education status, free or reduced-price lunch status, age, and proficiency level on grade 8 state math and reading assessments. For the 2005/06 cohort, the on-time graduation rate in District A was 80.7 percent for on-track students and 30.2 percent for off-track students; in District B, it was 91 percent for on-track students and 45 percent for off-track students. On-track status was a significant predictor of on-time graduation, even after controlling for student background characteristics and grade 8 achievement test scores. The effect size for on-track status was larger than the effect sizes for any student background characteristic and for achievement test scores.
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Cover Date:	April 2012
Web Release:	April 25, 2012
Print Release:	April 25, 2012
Publication #:	REL 2012134 General Ordering Information
Center/Program:	REL
Associated Centers:	NCEE
Authors:	Heather Norbury, Kelly Reese, Manyee Wong, Sonica Dhillon, Yinmei Wan, and R. Dean Gerdeman
Type of Product:	Issues and Answers Report
Keywords:	Dropout Rates • Dropout prevention Graduation Rates, High School Students • at-risk
Questions:	For questions about the content of this Issues and Answers Report, please contact: Erin Pollard.