AIR Early College Follow-Up Efficacy Study

Pre-Registration site: This study was not pre-registered.

Publicly available data: Researchers interested in accessing project data may request data from the project director, Dr. Kristina Zeiser (kzeiser@air.org), who will provide a data-sharing agreement. Because project data include data obtained from state administrative data systems, researchers must first obtain permission from the Ohio Department of Education and the North Carolina Education Research Data Center before the research team can share project data.

WWC Review: The WWC review for the final report for this project can be accessed here.

• Early college students were significantly more likely than control students to enroll in college by the end of each year between the fourth year of high school and 6 years after expected high school graduation (Year 10). By Year 10, 84.2% of early college students had enrolled in college, compared with 77.0% of control students. Early college impacts on college enrollment by Year 10 did not differ significantly by gender, race/ethnicity, or low-income status. However, the early college impact on enrolling in 2-year colleges was significantly larger for students with higher levels of Grade 8 ELA achievement (Song & Zeiser, 2019).
• Early college students were significantly more likely than control students to complete a postsecondary degree by the end of each year between the fourth year of high school and 6 years after expected high school graduation. By Year 10, 45.4% of early college student and 33.5% of control students had completed a certificate, an associate degree, or a bachelor's degree. Early college impacts on degree attainment by Year 10 did not differ significantly by gender, race/ethnicity, or low-income status. However, the early college impact on attaining an associate degree or certificate by Year 10 was significantly larger for students with higher levels of Grade 8 ELA or math achievement (Song & Zeiser, 2019).
• Students' high school experiences  (e.g., college-going culture and college credit accrual during high school) were significant mediators for the early college impacts on college enrollment and degree completion outcomes, with college credit accrual during high school explaining the largest proportion of the effect on degree completion (Song & Zeiser, 2019).
• The increased educational attainment attributed to early college enrollment resulted in average lifetime benefits of almost $58,000 per student. By comparison, the cost of early colleges was approximately $3,800 more per student over 4 years than traditional high school (Atchison, Zeiser, Mohammed, Levin, & Knight, 2019).

• Did early college students have better postsecondary outcomes (i.e., college enrollment and degree attainment) than control students?
• Did the impacts of early colleges vary by student background characteristics (i.e., gender, race/ethnicity, low-income status, and prior mathematics and English language arts achievement)?
• Were the impacts of early colleges mediated by students' high school experiences (i.e., college credit accrual during high school, instructional rigor, college-going culture, and student supports)?

To address the question about the main impact of early colleges, the project team estimated intent-to-treat effects of being offered enrollment in an ECHS. Given that not all study participants complied with the lottery-based treatment assignment, the project team supplemented the intent-to-treat analyses with complier average treatment effect analyses, which estimated the impact of attending an ECHS. In addition, the project team conducted differential impact analyses and mediation analyses to address research questions 2 and 3.