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Information on IES-Funded Research
Grant Open

Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting with International Large-Scale Assessments

NCER
Program: Statistical and Research Methodology in Education
Program topic(s): Core
Award amount: $896,582
Principal investigator: David Kaplan
Awardee:
University of Wisconsin, Madison
Year: 2022
Project type:
Methodological Innovation
Award number: R305D220012

Purpose

The purpose of this project is to develop models and methods to demonstrate that international large-scale assessments, in particular PISA, can be used to forecast international trends in literacy and numeracy outcomes.

Project Activities

More specifically, the researchers will synthesize latent growth curve modeling, Bayesian model averaging (BMA), and probabilistic scoring rules into a comprehensive modeling framework for forecasting international trends in education outcomes over time. The researchers will concentrate on gender gaps in literacy and numeracy, with a particular focus on forecasting the impact of COVID-19 on these trends.

People and institutions involved

IES program contact(s)

Charles Laurin

Education Research Analyst
NCER

Products and publications

Products: The main product of the grant is a Shiny app (ShinyBPF) that will enable applied researchers to use the combined modeling framework for different forecasts using large-scale assessment data. The research team will provide extensive tutorials on the use of the software. They also plan to conduct workshops on the use of the Shiny app, present technical and applied findings at conferences, and publish technical and applied findings in peer-reviewed journals.

Supplemental information

Co-Principal Investigator: Jude, Nina

Questions about this project?

To answer additional questions about this project or provide feedback, please contact the program officer.

 

Tags

Education TechnologyData and AssessmentsMathematics

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Questions about this project?

To answer additional questions about this project or provide feedback, please contact the program officer.

 

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