Project Activities
The researchers will conduct quasi-experimental analyses using student longitudinal data from three large Florida school districts. To address the effects of grade retention on intermediate and long-run outcomes, they will use a regression discontinuity design based on the third grade reading scores used to determine whether students are retained. To address whether the retention policy has spillover effects on non-retained students promoted to fourth grade, they will use difference-in-differences methods that exploit variation over time and across schools in the proportion of students retained in third grade. They will also use a variety of methods to examine the impacts of the retention policy on students with weak reading skills (that is, scores below the retention threshold).
Structured Abstract
Setting
The study includes three large urban school districts in Florida.
Sample
The 3 school districts enroll 25 percent of the Florida K-12 student population and comprise a diverse student population of about 1/3rd Black and 1/3rd Hispanic students. The analyses of long-run outcomes will focus on students that enroll in third grade for the first time between 2001 and 2011. For robustness analyses, the researchers will examine data from students who enrolled in third grade between 2012 and 2019.
The intervention is the Florida's test-based retention policy implemented in 2003. Under this policy, students cannot be promoted to fourth grade unless they score at Level 2 or higher (the second of five achievement levels) on the statewide reading test or obtain an exemption from this requirement. The legislation requires that retained students receive retention-year instructional support designed to improve their reading skills.
Research design and methods
To address the impact of grade retention on intermediate and long-run outcomes, the researchers will link student records from school districts to data from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC). They will follow cohorts that started third grade between 2001 and 2011 for up to 16 years as they progress through elementary, middle, high school and college. They will evaluate the impacts of retention in third grade using regression discontinuity designs based on the reading score threshold used to retain students. To address whether the retention policy has spillover effects on non-retained students promoted to fourth grade, they will use difference-in-differences methods that exploit variation over time and across schools in the proportion of students retained in third grade. The researchers will use various methods to examine the impacts of the retention policy on students with weak reading skills (that is, scores below the retention threshold).
Control condition
The treatment condition are students who were retained in third grade, and the comparison condition are those who were not retained.
Key measures
: Key student outcomes include standardized test scores; course-taking in middle and high school; high school dropout and graduation; and post-secondary enrollment, persistence, and completion.
Data analytic strategy
The researchers will analyze the regression discontinuity design using parametric and non-parametric approaches and test for test score manipulation and differential attrition. The researchers will test the assumptions underlying the difference-in-differences design in various ways, including via an analysis of a temporary suspension of retention policies in 2015.
Cost analysis strategy
The researchers will assess cost effectiveness using existing cost estimates of Florida's retention policy as well as existing estimates for the private and social returns to high school graduation, college completion, and college quality.
People and institutions involved
IES program contact(s)
Project contributors
Products and publications
Products include evidence on the effects of test-based retention policies on students' long-run outcomes. The researchers will disseminate the evidence to the research community and education practitioners as well as policymakers through presentations and peer-reviewed publications.
Publications:
ERIC Citations: Find available citations in ERIC for this award here.
Questions about this project?
To answer additional questions about this project or provide feedback, please contact the program officer.
