Project Activities
The project team will use a simple and a Comparative Interrupted Time Series (CITS) design to examine whether the 9th grade program, which began in 2016, changed the extent to which students are on track to graduate at the end of ninth grade (overall and by implementation subgroups). In addition, they will conduct a survey to determine implementation of the initiative during the school years disrupted by COVID-19.
Structured Abstract
Setting
This project takes place in the state of Oregon.
Sample
This project includes Oregon's 198 school districts from 2013-2014 through 2021-2022
Oregon's On-Track to Graduation initiative includes a specific program for 9th grade that when fully implemented includes school data systems for tracking whether 9th grade students are on track to graduate; activities to raise teacher, student, parent, and other stakeholders' awareness of the importance of 9th graders being on track to graduate; and the funding and training of 9th grade coaches to support keeping 9th grade students on track to graduate. Some districts chose not to implement the 9th grade program while others chose to partially implement it by only using the data systems and awareness activities (not the 9th grade coaches).
Research design and methods
Using ITS and CITS designs, the project team will first compare 9th grade on track outcomes overall and for full, partial or no implementation from 2013–14 through 2018–19. Next, the team will examine whether any changes in ninth grade on-track outcomes found from 2016–2019 (attributed to the impacts of the 9th grade on track program) continued during 2019–2020 through 2021–2022 given the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The project team will check on possible selection bias in the time series designs by analyzing a dependent variable not expected to be affected by the 9th grade on track program (involvement in a student leadership organization). The team will complete correlational studies to explore differences in the on-track outcomes by student and district characteristics.
Control condition
The analyses will compare full implementation of the 9th grade program to partial implementation (no 9th grade coaches) and no implementation.
Key measures
The primary outcome variable is ODE's 9th grade on track to graduate metric (9G-OTG). On-track to graduate is defined as enrolled on the first school day in May with full academic year status and having earned 25% of total credits required to graduate (6 credits) prior to the start of the next school year. For the implementation variable, the project team will code each district's plan for Oregon's On-Track to Graduation initiative by the project team as full, partial, or no implementation. In addition, they will conduct a survey to determine implementation during the school years disrupted by COVID-19.
Data analytic strategy
Analyses include multilevel piecewise growth modeling to specify two types of interrupted time series (ITS) models, simple and comparative (CITS).
State decision making
The findings will be useful as ODE considers
- Whether support for the 9th grade coaches is required for improvements in ninth grade on-track to graduate or whether similar gains can be made without them,
- Whether ODE's focus on equity is being addressed by the 9th grade intervention,
- Whether the Comprehensive District Learning (CDL) COVID-19 Guidance is linked to maintaining gains under the 9th grade intervention (for full and partial implementation and for different subgroups), and
- Whether the type of implementation of the 9th intervention is linked to maintaining gains under the COVID-19 Guidance.
People and institutions involved
IES program contact(s)
Project contributors
Partner institutions
Oregon Department of Education
University of Oregon
Products and publications
Products: The project team will provide a report and present the findings and recommendations to the Oregon State Board of Education, multiple departments within the ODE, Oregon's educational service districts, and other relevant boards and committees. The team will also present the findings to the public through briefs and develop presentations and publications to directly communicate with parents and students as well as to researchers and other state and local policymakers.
Related projects
Supplemental information
Co-Principal Investigators: Messer, Jason; Scalise, Kathleen; Tate, Benjamin; Zvoch, Keith
Questions about this project?
To answer additional questions about this project or provide feedback, please contact the program officer.
