Recent studies have documented differences in academic achievement between current and former English learner students. These differences validate calls for more focused analyses of achievement across English learner student subgroups. Specifically, there is interest in examining variation in academic success based on the amount of time a student spends classified as an English learner student and the grade in which the student is reclassified as fluent English proficient. This study responds to this call for more focused analyses by examining the variation in four-year high school graduation rates across five English learner student subgroups in Arizona: (1) Long-term English learner students. Students who were first identified as English learner students in Arizona prior to grade 6 and had not yet been reclassified as fluent English proficient by the time they entered grade 9; (2) New English learner students. Students who were first identified as English learner students in Arizona in grade 6 or later and entered high school designated as English learner students; (3) Recently proficient former English learner students. Former English learner students who had been reclassified as fluent English proficient in Arizona in grades 6-8; (4) Long-term proficient former English learner students. Former English learner students who had been reclassified as fluent English proficient in Arizona in grades 2-5; and (5) Never-English learner students. Students who were either never classified as English learner students in Arizona or who were early English speakers who had been reclassified as fluent English proficient in Arizona prior to grade 2. Using data for a single cohort of Arizona grade 9 students from the class of 2014, the study examined the observed four-year high school graduation rates across these five subgroups and how predicted graduation rates differed across subgroups when students with both similar demographic characteristics and similar prior academic achievement were compared. Findings include: (1) Never-English learner students had the highest observed four-year graduation rate (85 percent), followed by long-term proficient former English learner students (81 percent), recently proficient former English learner students (67 percent), and new English learner students (52 percent). Long-term English learner students had the lowest observed graduation rate (49 percent). Thus, long-term English learner students and new English learner students had the most difficulty graduating within four years of entering grade 9; (2) Student demographic characteristics did not explain much of the variation in graduation rates across subgroups. When students with similar demographic characteristics were compared, the differences in predicted graduation rates between long-term English learner students and other subgroups (except new English learner students) were smaller, though still large, than the differences in observed graduation rates; and (3) Academic achievement before high school explained most of the differences in graduation rates across subgroups and may have been a key factor driving graduation outcomes. When students with both similar demographic characteristics and similar prior academic achievement were compared, differences in graduation rates across subgroups were vastly diminished; (4) The earlier that English learner students achieved English proficiency, the higher their graduation rate. By describing the variation in high school graduation rates across these subgroups, this report may help educators and education policymakers more effectively promote the college and career readiness of current and former English learner students through better targeted supports. The following are appended: (1) Data and methodology; (2) Analytic sample and student demographic characteristics; and (3) Detailed results from regression analysis.
