Identifying Indicators that Predict Postsecondary Readiness and Success in Arkansas

Arkansas has identified college and career readiness indicators for schools that can be used to monitor students' performance and to improve their postsecondary readiness and success. Using two cohorts of grade 6 students, this study examined the extent to which Arkansas's middle school and high school indicators of postsecondary readiness predict a student postsecondary readiness outcome (an ACT score of 19 or higher) and success outcomes (enrolled in college for at least one term within eight years of beginning grade 6, and persisted in college by enrolling for more than one term within eight years of beginning grade 6). The study estimated the accuracy and strength of the middle school and high school indicators for predicting the outcomes. While fewer than half of students met the Arkansas postsecondary readiness standard, more than half enrolled in college and about half persisted for more than one term within eight years of beginning grade 6. Middle school and high school indicators, when combined with student background characteristics, predicted readiness and success outcomes with greater accuracy than did student background characteristics alone. Middle school indicators that were major predictors for at least two of the three outcomes examined included proficiency in English language arts and math, regular school attendance, no suspensions, and no expulsions. High school indictors that were major predictors for at least two of the outcomes included grade point average, enrollment in an advanced course, regular school attendance, and no expulsions.