Past and Projected Trends in Teacher Demand and Supply in Michigan

State and school district leaders in Michigan are concerned about the challenges some districts are facing in filling certain classroom teacher vacancies and about the harmful impact of teacher shortages on students, schools, and communities. They have asked for better and more comprehensive information on the existence and extent of teacher shortages in the state. Using data from the 2013/14-2017/18 school years, this study examined trends in teacher demand, supply, and shortages in Michigan and projects shortages and surpluses for 2018/19-2022/23. The study found that total enrollment in Michigan public schools declined by 3 percent between 2013/14 and 2017/18, while enrollment of English learner students increased by 27 percent. Over the same period the size of the teacher workforce, measured in full time equivalent teachers, declined by 2 percent, and the number of newly certified active teachers declined by 23 percent. Some subject areas (particularly business education and career and technical education) and regions of the state (Upper Peninsula and Northwest) are projected to see teacher shortages between 2018/19 and 2022/23. However, the total active teacher supply in Michigan public schools is projected to meet demand during this period. [For the appendixes, see ED597853; for the brief, see ED597854; and for the snapshot, see ED597855.]