Predicting Early College Success for Indiana's High School Class of 2014

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between receiving Pell Grants and 21st Century Scholarships and early college success among the 2014 cohort of Indiana public high school graduates entering public Indiana colleges in the fall after graduation. Early college success for these students was defined using three measures plus a composite of those measures: whether students took only nonremedial coursework in their first semester of college, whether they earned all attempted credits in their first semester of college, and whether they persisted to a second year of college. In collaboration with the Management Performance Hub, REL Midwest analysts used student demographic, academic, and financial aid variables to examine what percentage of students achieved early college success, and those percentages vary by student demographic and academic characteristics; school-level demographic and academic characteristics; and whether students received Pell Grants, 21st Century Scholarships, or other forms of financial aid, and the relationship between receiving aid and early college success, controlling for other student- and school-level characteristics. Fifty eight percent of students entering two-year colleges and 36 percent of those entering four-year colleges received Pell Grants. Smaller percentages of students at two- and four-year colleges received 21st Century Scholarships (16 percent versus 21 percent, respectively). The majority of the sample achieved early college success by most indicators of success. Rates of student success varied by institution type, student demographic and academic characteristics, and the characteristics of the high schools from which students graduated. Finally, after controlling for other student- and school-level variables, recipients of Pell Grants were less likely to earn all attempted credits, persist to a second year, and achieve success by all indicators for both two- and four-year college students. Conversely, 21st Century Scholarship recipients entering two- and four-year colleges were more likely to persist to a second year of college. The results from this study will help state practitioners and policymakers better identify and provide resources for students who may be at risk of not succeeding in college. In addition, these findings raise several considerations related to early college success for students from disadvantaged backgrounds and those who receive Pell grants.