Demographic Changes and Literacy Development in a Decade

This paper considers several interrelated topics: (1) anticipated demographic changes in the U.S. adult population age 16 and over in the decade between the National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS) of 1992 and the National Assessment of Adult Literacy (NAAL) scheduled for 2002; (2) implications of these demographic changes for interpreting changes observed over the intervening decade in national and state adult literacy proficiency profiles; and (3) implications of anticipated demographic changes for the NAAL methodology, including the content of the background questionnaire, the sampling design, and other survey and assessment procedures. A demographic model of adult literacy proficiency will be described that links changes in literacy proficiency to compositional and maturational changes in the adult population. The model is used both to project future changes in the adult population's literacy as well as to disaggregate observed past changes in literacy proficiency into compositional and maturational components.

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