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National Center for Education Statistics

New Projected Data Through 2030 to Be Included in Digest of Education Statistics

NCES is excited to announce the inclusion of new projected data as part of the Digest of Education Statistics: 2021. These new data include projections of education statistics through 2030 and account for impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.

Since 1964, NCES has produced the Projections of Education Statistics, which includes statistics ranging from elementary/secondary enrollment to teacher counts to postsecondary degrees earned. To produce these estimates, NCES uses models that apply historical trends in education to forecasted trends in demographics and the economy.

Each edition of the Projections provides revisions to estimates from the year before. These revisions can be the result of designed model improvements or incidental changes to the underlying data that feed the models. With the long-term impacts of the pandemic uncertain, NCES made minimal changes to the projection models in favor of consistency (for more information on how these forecasts have been produced historically, see the Technical Appendixes). However, due to the disruption of the coronavirus pandemic, changes to underlying data were more pronounced than usual.

For example, enrollment levels—particularly during compulsory elementary and secondary grades—are strongly determined by the size of the school-aged population. NCES’s projections rely on population projections, which are licensed from IHS Markit. IHS Markit’s population projections reflect a decline in birth rates during the coronavirus pandemic.1 These population projections will impact projected enrollment levels as smaller birth cohorts mature to school age.

Specifically, Digest table 203.10 reports projected data for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by grade over time. Between fall 2019 and fall 2020, total public school enrollment dropped by 3 percent (figure 1). By 2030, total public school enrollment is projected to decrease another 4 percent. However, public school enrollments are projected to be higher in 2021 than they were in 2020. Although public school enrollment is not projected to return to 2019 levels, it is projected to remain higher than 2020 levels through 2024. In other words, the projected decrease in public school enrollments over the next decade is not a direct continuation of the pandemic-related drop observed between fall 2019 and fall 2020. Rather, it is primarily a reflection of changes in the school-age population.


Figure 1. Annual percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools: Fall 2010 to fall 2030

NOTE: Data are for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Data include both traditional public schools and public charter schools. Data include imputations for nonreported prekindergarten enrollment in California for fall 2019 and 2020 and in Oregon for fall 2020. Data include imputations for nonreported enrollment for all grades in Illinois for fall 2020.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 2010–11 through 2020–21. See Digest of Education Statistics 2021, table 203.10.


The relationship between population and enrollment in elementary and secondary grades can be seen even more clearly by comparing projected enrollments for different grade levels. Children conceived during the pandemic will begin to age into first grade in large numbers beginning in 2027. In contrast, no children conceived during the pandemic will have aged into grade 9 by the end of the projection period in 2030. Figure 2 shows a pronounced dip in public school enrollment in grade 1 in 2027 and 2028, which is not present at grade 9. Specifically, public school enrollment in grade 1 is projected to be 8 percent lower in both 2027 and 2028 than in 2026. Meanwhile, the difference in these years for grade 9 is less than 1 percent (rounds to 0 percent). This is a direct reflection of projected declines in birth rates during the pandemic and the relationship between the school-age population and enrollment levels.


Figure 2. Enrollment in public schools, by selected grade: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data are for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Data include both traditional public schools and public charter schools. The total ungraded counts of students were prorated to prekindergarten through grade 8 and grades 9 through 12 based on the known grade-level distribution of a state. Data include imputations for nonreported prekindergarten enrollment in California for fall 2019 and 2020 and in Oregon for fall 2020. Data include imputations for nonreported enrollment for all grades in Illinois for fall 2020. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 2010–11 through 2020–21. See Digest of Education Statistics 2021, table 203.10.


All of NCES’s projections are heavily impacted by population forecasts. In addition, certain statistics—such as public school expenditures and postsecondary enrollments—are also shaped by economic forecasts. Like their population projections, IHS Markit’s economic forecasts have also factored in effects of the pandemic. This is another way in which forthcoming projections of education statistics account for pandemic-related impacts.

Digest tables featuring additional projections will be released on a rolling basis throughout the year. Be sure to bookmark this page for the most up-to-date tables.

Explore the first batch of tables from Digest 2021 with projected data:

  • Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by level and grade: Selected years, fall 1980 through fall 2030 (table 203.10)
  • Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2030 (table 203.20)
  • Public school enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2030 (table 203.25)
  • Public school enrollment in grades 9 through 12, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2030 (table 203.30)
  • Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and region: Selected years, fall 1995 through fall 2030 (table 203.50)
  • Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and level of education: Fall 1999 through fall 2030 (table 203.60)
  • Public and private elementary and secondary teachers, enrollment, pupil/teacher ratios, and new teacher hires: Selected years, fall 1955 through fall 2030 (table 208.20)
  • Current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools: 1989–90 through 2030–31 (table 236.15)


Explore previous editions of the Projections of Education Statistics.

 

By Véronique Irwin, NCES


[1] Declines in birth rates during the coronavirus pandemic have also been shown by government agencies including Census and the National Center for Health Statistics (as cited by Census).

NCES Releases New Edition of the Digest of Education Statistics

NCES recently released the 2020 edition of the Digest of Education Statistics, the 56th in a series of publications initiated in 1962. The Digest—which provides a centralized location for a wide range of statistical information covering early childhood through adult education—tells the story of American education through data. Digest tables are the foundation of many NCES reports, including the congressionally mandated Condition of Education, which contains key indicators that describe and visualize important developments and trends.

The Digest includes data tables from many sources, both government and private, and draws especially on the results of surveys and activities carried out by NCES. In addition, the Digest serves as one of the only NCES reports where data from across nearly 200 sources—including other statistical agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau—are compiled. The publication contains data on a variety of subjects in the field of education statistics, including the number of schools and colleges, teachers, enrollments, and graduates, in addition to data on educational attainment, finances, federal funds for education, libraries, and international comparisons. A helpful feature of the Digest is its ability to provide long-term trend data. Several tables include data that were collected more than 50—or even 100—years ago:

  • Poverty status of all persons, persons in families, and related children under age 18, by race/ethnicity: Selected years, 1960 through 2019 (table 102.50)
  • Percentage of the population 3 to 34 years old enrolled in school, by age group: Selected years, 1940 through 2019 (table 103.20)
  • Rates of high school completion and bachelor's degree attainment among persons age 25 and over, by race/ethnicity and sex: Selected years, 1910 through 2020 (table 104.10)
  • Historical summary of faculty, enrollment, degrees conferred, and finances in degree-granting postsecondary institutions: Selected years, 1869-70 through 2018-19 (table 301.20)
  • Federal support and estimated federal tax expenditures for education, by category: Selected fiscal years, 1965 through 2019 (table 401.10)

The Digest is organized into seven chapters: All Levels of Education, Elementary and Secondary Education, Postsecondary Education, Federal Funds for Education and Related Activities, Outcomes of Education, International Comparisons of Education, and Libraries and Use of Technology. Each chapter is divided into a number of topical subsections. The Digest also includes a Guide to Sources and a Definitions section to provide supplemental information to readers. To learn more about how the Digest is structured and how best to navigate it—including how to access the most current tables or tables from a specific year and how to search for key terms—check out the blog post “Tips for Navigating the Digest of Education Statistics.”

In addition to providing updated versions of many statistics that have appeared in previous years, this edition also includes several new tables, many of which highlight data related to the coronavirus pandemic:

  • Percentage of adults with children in the household who reported their child’s classes were moved to a distance learning format using online resources in selected periods during April through December 2020, by selected adult and household characteristics (table 218.80)
  • Percentage of adults with children in the household who reported that computers and internet access were always or usually available for educational purposes in their household in selected periods during April through December 2020, by selected adult and household characteristics (table 218.85)
  • Percentage of adults with children in the household who reported that computers or digital devices and internet access were provided by their child’s schools or districts in selected periods during April through December 2020, by selected adult and household characteristics (table 218.90)
  • Number of school shootings at public and private elementary and secondary schools between 2000-01 and 2019-20, by location and time period (table 228.14)
  • Percentage of adults who reported changes to household members’ fall postsecondary plans in August 2020, by level of postsecondary education planned and selected respondent characteristics (table 302.80)
  • Percentage of adults with at least one household member’s fall attendance plans cancelled who reported on reasons for changes in plans in August 2020, by level of postsecondary education planned and selected respondent characteristics (table 302.85)

Also new this year is the release of more than 200 machine-readable Digest tables, with more to come at a later date. These tables allow the data to be read in a standard format, making them easier for developers and researchers to use. To learn more about machine-readable tables, check out the blog post “Machine-Readable Tables for the Digest of Education Statistics.

Learn more about the Digest in the Foreword to the publication and explore the tables in this edition.

 

By Megan Barnett, AIR

NCES's Top Hits of 2021

As 2021—another unprecedented year—comes to a close and you reflect on your year, be sure to check out NCES’s annual list of top web hits. From reports and Condition of Education indicators to Fast Facts, APIs, blog posts, and tweets, NCES releases an array of content to help you stay informed about the latest findings and trends in education. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn to stay up-to-date in 2022!
 

Top five reports, by number of PDF downloads

1. Condition of Education 2020 (8,376)

2Digest of Education Statistics 2019 (4,427)

3. Status and Trends in the Education of Racial and Ethnic Groups 2018 (3,282)

4. Indicators of School Crime and Safety: 2019 (2,906)

5. Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States: 2019 (2,590)

 

Top five indicators from the Condition of Education, by number of web sessions

1. Students With Disabilities (100,074)

2. Racial/Ethnic Enrollment in Public Schools (64,556)

3. Characteristics of Public School Teachers (57,188)

4. Public High School Graduation Rates (54,504)

5. Education Expenditures by Country (50,20)

 

Top five Fast Facts, by number of web sessions

1. Back-to-School Statistics (162,126)

2. Tuition Costs of Colleges and Universities (128,236)

3. Dropout Rates (74,399)

4. Graduation Rates (73,855)

5. Degrees Conferred by Race and Sex (63,178)

 

Top five NCES/EDGE API requested categories of social and spatial context GIS data, by number of requests

1. K–12 Schools (including district offices) (4,822,590)

2. School Districts (1,616,374)

3. Social/Economic (882,984)

4. Locales (442,715)

5. Postsecondary (263,047)

 

Top five blog posts, by number of web sessions

1. Understanding School Lunch Eligibility in the Common Core of Data (8,242)

2. New Report Shows Increased Diversity in U.S. Schools, Disparities in Outcomes (3,463)

3. Free or Reduced Price Lunch: A Proxy for Poverty? (3,457)

4. Back to School by the Numbers: 2019–20 School Year (2,694)

5. Educational Attainment Differences by Students’ Socioeconomic Status (2,587)

 

Top five tweets, by number of impressions

1. CCD blog (22,557)


2. NAEP dashboard (21,551)


3. IPEDS data tools (21,323)


4. ACGR web table (19,638)


5. Kids’ Zone (19,390)

 

By Megan Barnett, AIR

Machine-Readable Tables for the Digest of Education Statistics

NCES is excited to announce the release of more than 100 Digest of Education Statistics tables in a new format that makes them easier for researchers to read and use. These tables, known as machine-readable tables (MRT), have a uniform design that allows the data to be read in a standard format.

Each MRT file contains data from one Digest table. In addition to data values, each MRT file includes metadata information pertaining to that particular table. The MRT file, which is an Excel file, includes three tabs:

  •  “MRT-README” tab: provides a brief introduction to MRT and lists all variable names and descriptions used in the table.
  •  “meta” tab: includes all table-specific metadata information, such as the Digest table number and title, general note, data source note, and URL for the corresponding Digest table.
  •  “data” tab: contains all the cell data in a format that is homogeneous across all Digest tables, such as row level headers, column level headers, data values, standard errors, data years, and special notes at the cell level.

The new MRT format facilitates access to and use of Digest table data by software programs. Those seeking to simply view the data or make a simple calculation can continue to access these data in the traditional table format on the Digest of Education Statistics webpage.

There are two ways to access the MRT files, either as a batch or as individual files. To download all available MRT files, visit the Digest MRT webpage. To download individual MRT files, click on the “Download machine readable table” link from the corresponding Digest table’s HTML page (see below).


User feedback is essential to the design of future MRTs (more MRT files will be released in the coming months). NCES welcomes any comments on or suggestions to improve the usability of these tables. For example, NCES is interested in hearing how MRT files are used for research or other applications and any changes that could improve their ease of use. Please contact us with your feedback or questions.  

 

By Jizhi Zhang and Paul Bailey, AIR

Tips for Navigating the Digest of Education Statistics

Have you explored the recently released Digest of Education Statistics 2019? The Digest is a great resource for education data on a range of topics from a variety of sources. Because of the report’s size (the 2019 edition has more than 700 tables across 7 chapters), it can sometimes be a bit tricky to find the data you need. Read on to discover some tips for navigating the Digest website.

 

Finding the Most Recent Versions of Tables

There are several ways to find the most recent version of a table, depending on what page you are on. From the Digest landing page, click on “Most Current Digest Tables” (figure 1). From the list of tables page for a specific year, use the drop-down menu to select “Current” (figure 2).


Figure 1


Figure 2


  • Tip: If you navigate to a table from a search engine, you may not be on the most recent year. Check for a “Click here for the latest version of this table” option in the top righthand corner of the table’s page.

 

Finding Tables Using the Digest Indexing System

Have you ever navigated to a Digest table from a search engine or another NCES report and wanted to find other similar tables? What should you do if a Digest table covers a topic you want to learn about but does not include the specific data you need? You can use the Digest indexing system to find other similar tables.

The Digest indexing system is based on numbered chapters and topical subsections. Each table identifier contains the chapter number (1 through 7) followed by the subsection (e.g., 01, 02, 03) and the table number after the period (e.g., .10, .20, .30). For example, table 601.10 is the first table in chapter 6 under “Population, Enrollment, and Teachers,” which is subsection 01 (figure 3).


Figure 3


To find tables similar to the one you have found already, click on the link at the top left of the table’s page, which will take you to a full list of tables for the Digest edition you are viewing. For example, a Digest 2019 table will feature a “2019 Tables and Figures” link at the top left of the table (figure 4).


Figure 4


From here you can navigate to the relevant chapter and subsection using the indexing system. For example, if you were viewing table 601.10 and wanted to find other similar tables, you would click the + sign next to “Chapter 6. International Comparisons of Education” and then click the + next to “601 Population, Enrollment, and Teachers” (figure 5). You can then click through and explore all the relevant tables in that subsection.


Figure 5


  • Tip: Use the radio buttons at the top right to toggle between viewing tables and figures.
  • Tip: Use Ctrl + click to open tables in a new tab to avoid losing your place on the page.

If you do not see a table with the information you need, remember that the SOURCE note of a Digest table can be a great way to find related resources. Scroll to the bottom of a table to find the data sources used to prepare it.

 

Searching for Key Terms or Phrases Across All Tables

What if you want to search the Digest by topic instead of starting with a specific table? One easy way to do so is to navigate to the “List of 2019 Tables Page” and click “Show All” next to each chapter (figure 6).

  • Tip: Start at chapter 7 and work your way up to avoid having to scroll.

Figure 6


Once the tables are displayed for each chapter, you can easily do a global search of the entire page (Ctrl + F) and search for the term or phrase of your choice.

  • Tip: Try a few different search terms if you do not find what you are looking for right away. For example, the Digest uses the term “distance education” for remote learning.

 

Accessing Older Versions of Tables

In addition to the current edition of the report, the Digest website also contains archives of each report through 1990. You can access previous editions of the report in several ways (figure 7):

  • Select a year from the drop-down menu to access the HMTL versions of that year’s tables.
  • Click on “Access PDF versions of the Digest from 1990–2019” to access archived PDF files.
    • From here, you can click the + next to “Digest of Education Statistics” and select the report you want to view.

Figure 7


In addition to trying these tips for navigating the Digest website, you can explore the Reader’s Guide and Guide to Sources to learn more about the data sources used in the report. The Reader’s Guide also provides additional information about common measures and indexes, data analysis and interpretation, limitations of the data, and other aspects of the report. 

 

By Megan Barnett, AIR